Clean Energy in Brazil

@alan279 Interesting.  That seems weird since they have petrobras, but if true, great news.  I know that Uruguay has almost completely phased out fossil fuels for their electricity production, so it's definitely doable.  I'll look around also and see what I can find.

@alan279, please send more information about this if you have.

The utility grade solar generation business model is very different from individual solar panel implementation.  It would be interesting to know how the Chinese are managing and will do cost recovery on this infrastructure project.

@alan279, utility grade solar tend to be more expensive and less environmentally friendly than roof solar because a) it covers land that cannot be used for anything else, b) power lines need to be brought to the plant, and c) there will be environmental damage to the land below the panels.

Roof solar does not add to environmental damage as it's on an existing roof.  The electricity is used locally and if there is need to export, the existing infrastructure can be used.

Roof solar can support more scalable business models as this allows small housing groups to create cooperatives that will control its own prices and / or electricity sources.

@Pablo888State Grid appears to be a major player in Brazil's energy infrastructure.

    @Pablo888State Grid appears to be a major player in Brazil's energy infrastructure.
   

    -@alan279

State Grid is a Chinese company -> https://www.icbc-ltd.com/icbc/en/newsup … lsCPFL.htm

Not sure whether there will be a country related conflict here...   Here is an example brooding:

https://dialogochino.net/en/trade-inves … m-project/

The Belo Monte electrical transmission line is now in operation.

http://en.sasac.gov.cn/2023/10/13/c_16027.htm

On a 2021 return trip from Fortaleza to Paraíba Verônica and I came through Mossoró (thermal springs to relax) and Praia de Galinhos in Rio Grande do Norte (an area known for migratory shorebirds and sea-salt production). The stretch from Mossoró to Galinhos includes the "estrada do petróleo," (see below) a highway lined with oil pump jacks in an area which is evolving into a renewable energy production area with many wind "parks." I have never seen so many wind turbines!!

Picture on the shore at Galinhos:

https://www.expat.com/en/picture/247321 … 62-brazil/

"Clean" energy is certainly desirable. Brazil is ramping up production, particularly in the northeast. Still, there are also a lot of problems to iron out, not unusual for a rapidly expanding sector, but somehow the Brazilian twist accentuates what could be simpler problems into bigger problems. We would be negligent to fail to consider the side effects. Cáritas, a Catholic relief, development and social service organization, has a 6 part series on Youtube called "Para Quem Sopram os Ventos?" in Portuguese, that provides interviews of poor families in the northeast that have suffered consequences of the rapid expansion of wind turbine parks. If you dig around you can find plenty of incidental as well as scientific information on these challenges.

Rio Grande do Norte (FIERN - Federação das Indústrias do Estado do RN) has a great slide show with links to details that shows the state of renewable energy (growth) in the northeast (apologies for the long link):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi … 2ba0e50e8d

I am inspired in seeing the focus on renewable energies but I am also worried about impacts that have yet to be considered. I know of people who have stated that developments (wind parks) in the area of Santa Luzia, Paraiba, are causing wildlife to leave due to [possibly] infrasound (extremely low frequency sound). Obviously, science should guide us best for siting wind and solar parks - and that doesn't really happen here.

- - -

Foreign firms control 50% of all leased lands (wind parks).

The 10 firms that control 70% of wind power production:

• Casa dos Ventos (Brazil)
• EDP Renováveis Brasil S.A. (Portugal)
• Rialma Energia Eólica (Brasil)
• Copel (Brasil)
• Echoenergia (Brazil)
• Elawan Energy (Spain)
• AES Brasil (USA)
• CPFL Energia (China)
• Voltalia (France)
• Engie Brasil (France)

"Latifundiários do vento: eólicas no RN concentram terras e afetam agricultores," 2023, (ReporterBrasil dot org)

- - -

Estrada do Petróleo runs from São José, Alto do Rodrigues to Guamaré, RN on RN401

mberigan

@mberigan Thanks, Matt. You've answered some of my questions on wind power in Brazil.

Alan

Roof solar can support more scalable business models as this allows small housing groups to create cooperatives that will control its own prices and / or electricity sources.        -@Pablo888

Do neighborhood grids work in the US  maze of city, county, state and federal regulations?

Alan

Any country that lets the CCP become integrally involved in their infrastructure is making a huge mistake. This includes the power grid and internet in any way, shape or form.

    Any country that lets the CCP become integrally involved in their infrastructure is making a huge mistake. This includes the power grid and internet in any way, shape or form.
   

    -@KenAquarius

Belief in propaganda is expensive both to you and holds back green energy over fossil fuels.

The advanced US has 375 miles of high speed rail.

China has 28,000 miles

The same is either true now, or will be true soon, for pretty much every other industry.

One also has to look at threats. The best way is to look at how many wars China has been involved in since 1947, then compare that to the United States.

My next car will very probably be a Chinese EV, and I fully intend to buy Chinese solar panels - They are the cheapest and most efficient- and very nice quality if you buy the right ones.

Brazil is moving the right direction in bringing in the world's leading green energy experts. It's great for Brazil, and helps dump fossil fuels.

    04/14/24 Any country that lets the CCP become integrally involved in their infrastructure is making a huge mistake. This includes the power grid and internet in any way, shape or form.
   

    -@KenAquarius

I'm always amazed at the number of otherwise intelligent people who blithely assume that China is just another country, as well-meaning and well-intentioned as France, Canada, or Bhutan.   And take great umbrage at anyone who states the obvious.   Guess it's past time to stop being surprised, and start getting worried.

        04/14/24 Any country that lets the CCP become integrally involved in their infrastructure is making a huge mistake. This includes the power grid and internet in any way, shape or form.         -@KenAquariusI'm always amazed at the number of otherwise intelligent people who blithely assume that China is just another country, as well-meaning and well-intentioned as France, Canada, or Bhutan.   And take great umbrage at anyone who states the obvious.   Guess it's past time to stop being surprised, and start getting worried.         -@abthree

China is far from 'just another country' but they are the world leader in pretty much all 21st century tech.

The propaganda isn't because of military threats, but because they are now the best capitalists in the world.

Any country that avoids Chinese tech, especially in renewable energy, is foolish at best.

While the west was oil mad, China worked its way to being 10 years ahead in everything that matters now, and cornered the market in everything they need to build it.

If Brazil wants the best, it has too buy from China.

@Fred, I am currently working with one of the Top Chinese EV.  Are you aware that although there are Chinese safety standards, they are just copies of European, Japanese and North American standards - and worse, they are not implemented and still are certified as compliant?

I remember looking for a manufacturing business in Shenzhen and I asked for whether the business would also provide safety and consumer safety testing services and the response was - "We would gladly print any certification labels that you want."  I know what is in a Chinese EV and I would not consider those safe.

Good luck with your Chinese EV purchase.

@Fred, some things from China are great, some not so great.  It's hard to say that everything is great unless someone is putting a gun to your head and forcing you to say that.

I have no problems with the Chinese people - just that the political system is not  free and transparent.  Even the citizens are afraid to talk about that.

Even if China has the best technology, Brazil may not adopt this technology because Brazil needs to develop the expertise.  I think that Brazil needs to do that is best for Brazil - not for China.

    @Fred, I am currently working with one of the Top Chinese EV.  Are you aware that although there are Chinese safety standards, they are just copies of European, Japanese and North American standards - and worse, they are not implemented and still are certified as compliant?
    -@Pablo888

Volkswagen emissions scandal

Thalidomide

It seems, if we use your argument, we can't trust the Swiss and Germans. Both had certification for their products, but both caused serious problems.

Harold Shipman - You can't trust any British doctors because they murder patients by the hundreds.

I have every confidence SOME Chinese manufacturers skirt the rules, but  does that mean all do?

    @Fred, some things from China are great, some not so great.  It's hard to say that everything is great unless someone is putting a gun to your head and forcing you to say that.I have no problems with the Chinese people - just that the political system is not  free and transparent.  Even the citizens are afraid to talk about that.Even if China has the best technology, Brazil may not adopt this technology because Brazil needs to develop the expertise.  I think that Brazil needs to do that is best for Brazil - not for China.        -@Pablo888

Show me a political system that  isn't abused. Come to think of it, show me one that's transparent - Ask journalists who published war crimes information about their experiences.

The technology takes years to develop so newcomers are pretty much stuck at least at first. That  might very well change over the years. However, having the technical skills and being able to produce at a competitive price are two different things.

Brazil, along with most of the rest of the world has three choices:

• Use Chinese expertise
• Use non-Chinese products but pay more
• Claim China is an evil communist nation so you shouldn't use their stuff, then stick with oil and gas at stupid prices

Brazil, as with all countries, should do what's best for their own people. That's what any decent government should do.

Sandy Munro says that Chinese cars are great. And he expects BYD to become the largest car manufacturer in the world.

    Sandy Munro says that Chinese cars are great. And he expects BYD to become the largest car manufacturer in the world.
   

    -@alan279

Pretty likely. Their cars drive as smooth as silk and do exactly what they sat they will.

You should see the new generation of cheap but amazing EV bikes out of China. Many are using old battery tech rather than Lithium so prices are crazy cheap - and they ride like a dream.

Of course some are better than  others, but the very cheap ones are around 25% of a petrol bike that would be expected to last less than 10 years. In other words, if it lasts three years, you're on a winner. The best one are half the prices of a petrol, so you hope to get five years out of one.

However, with almost  zero servicing and a 'tank' that costs about a dollar to fill, the payback time is a lot faster than just the purchase cost against an ICE.

@Fred  ”If Brazil wants the best, it has too buy from China.”

you mean like this?

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en … tal-grave/

@Fred, there is also the option for Brazil to develop its own technology rather than use China or anyone else.

@alan279, BYD is becoming the largest manufacturer in the world because of the way it counts the number of vehicles that it manufactures - from the low end lead-acid based golf cart like car, to gas cars, to hybrid cars, utility vans, buses, and high end EVs.

Although the number will be big, this is because this company is heavily subsidized by the government and there are large incentives to buy in China.  This is typical of the government to drive economies of scale and create manufacturing oversupply and force sale outside of the country.

Nothing wrong about the strategy here.  Just that this is the typical Chinese manufacture to export playbook that has resulted into other countries not being able to compete and end up with a trade deficit with China.

    @Fred, there is also the option for Brazil to develop its own technology rather than use China or anyone else.
   

    -@Pablo888

I agree. It will only take 10 to 20 years and they will be there.

BYD will begin manufacturing vehicles in Brazil next year.

Alan

    BYD will begin manufacturing vehicles in Brazil next year.
Alan
   

    -@alan279

I have already seen some here - have they been imported rather than manufactured here then?

04/15/24    BYD will begin manufacturing vehicles in Brazil next year.
Alan
   

    -@alan279

It will be interesting to see how they do with workers who can quit and strike, and bring actions under the labor laws.  Talk about culture shock!

@Peter Itamaraca Any BYD vehicles you have seen in Brazil must have been imported.

BYD started renovating the old Ford works near Canaçari late last year. They say that cars will start rolling out of the plant early next year.

Alan

    @Peter Itamaraca Any BYD vehicles you have seen in Brazil must have been imported.
   

    -@alan279

Wow, that must have been expensive tax-wise!

Import taxes on a foreign car? Nearly 100%? 🤔

Alan

04/15/24    Import taxes on a foreign car? Nearly 100%? 🤔Alan        -@alan279

I haven't read anything to indicate whether this is the case or not, but if the assembly plant in Canaçari is capable of performing final assembly yet, they may have gotten a deal from the RF to import kits under a special lower tariff and assemble them here, while they're getting their local supply chain up and running.  When Dilma was President, her government negotiated a couple of deals like that.  I worked on one.

BYD's Camaçari plant will be the largest outside of China.

Various deals have been struck with Bahia and Brazil.

Lots of people will be employed at the facility.

An R&D facility will be established in Salvador.

A local supply chain will be built.

EVs will be cheaper for Brazilians.

That's my summarization of the BYD press release.

Sounds good. We'll see next year?

Alan

I think it may also be possible that Brazil allowed BYD to import some test or sample models, free of tax, to show and not for sale. There is a huge new Jeep plant not far from here, and maybe they were scouting it out, and that was when these cars were in the area?

@Peter Itamaraca

BYD sold 14,000 EVs in Brazil in the first three months of 2024.

Alan

    @Peter Itamaraca
BYD sold 14,000 EVs in Brazil in the first three months of 2024.
Alan
   

    -@alan279

I saw them about 1 year ago, so I guess they were selling then as well?

The BYD Dolphin was launched in Brazil in June 2023 and 6,000 were sold in the rest of the year.

I haven't seen one.

Alan

    Looks like Brazil will have completely clean electricity in a few years. It's mostly hydro today, but the Chinese are investing billions in solar and wind generation and long distance power lines from the Northeast to the South of Brazil.
I'm catching bits and pieces of this transformation. Anyone following it more closely?

Alan
   

    -@alan279

Northeast for Solar, South for Winds. 

And there are a lot of domestic consortiums in the play.  Not just the Chinese alone. Unless, there is, they are  all operating as proxy companies with Chinese Money.

And most of these projects are contracted with the established utility companies. So they are generating companies, not end user utilities.   Licensed Utility Companies are still needed for grid transport and distribution.

The consumer will never know what source they are getting their power from. Just as in Calliforna,  they can green wash your bill.  You meet a percentage that is "green" and you can call it green.  The tresholds are rather low.

And givenn the country's hydric capacity, they do not account for much.  In the Northeast, a bulk of the generating capacity comes from Power Plants such as Paulo Afonso and some smaller ones, out of the Sao Francisco River Basin.  Hidro Power Plants  Xingó, Sobradinho,and  Moxotó.

In the South, the larget to date is Itaipu, at the border with Paraguay by the State of Parana.

Brazil alone has well over 180 operating Hydro Power Plant. Hopefully none in hands of the Chinese. The Chinese Cement is the worst you can buy. Little wonder they have cracks on damns they were contracted for.

Meanwhile China has the largest number of coal fired power plants in the world, and they are planning to build 43 more. Despite this, they claim they will be carbon neutral by 2060.

The only interest they have in green technology is the green they are making from it. But hey we can post about our commitment to going green while cruising on our Chinese e-bike.